Investing In The Temperature Fluctuation

By Karl J. Hansen, klimabedrag.dk

Current trend

The temperature has shown longterm rising since The Little Ice Age at about 0.6 degree Celsius per century.  It is plausible that this trend will continue a bit into the near future; but no one can tell for sure.  Apart from the the average rise in temperature per century, there have been significant fluctuations with a full cycle length of about 60 years.  The amplitude of these cycles are so significant that the temperature, during cold cycles, has fallen significantly.

Current goal

The IPCC has guided us towards applying measurements to compensate for rise in temperature and prompted the politicians to invest billions of our money in preventive procedures, all with rather mediocre chance of producing any real benefits.  Even if the IPCC had suggested adaptive procedures, which could be very beneficial indeed, then there is still the question if any of these procedures are geared towards the right goal.

Future trend

It is very plausible that the most important driver of global temperatures is sunspot cycle length.  Many other factors play a role, but that is a bit academic as the sunspot cycle length is so significant and in very fine correlation with the historic temperature records.  We have now entered a time of a very interestingly long sunspot solar cycle.   If the current cycle extends some more years, we will know a lot more about the Sun's influence, the role of the planet's population and most significantly for this article, the near future temperature trends.  A further extend of the current sunspot soler cycle low, will suggest very significant fall in global temperatures.  It is a common believe, that the current cooling trend will continue do deepen until about 2030.

Future goal

We cannot know with any certainty if the current upward longterm trend continues, but we have very good reason to assume we will experience a significant short-term fall for the next 20 years.  So we must ask ourselves if we are acting on the right trend.  To act on an unknown forecast, rather than on a plausible forecast is mild said pretty immature and likely to cause more harm than good.  Imagine the airplane pilots planned their flight a week ahead, using 7 days weather forecast, instead of waiting with the flight plan until shortly before they take off.  In that case I think the insurance cost would increase dramatically.  We must plan for the future we can predict and be prepared for the unforeseen future.  Right now we must plan for colder times to come and prepare for any eventuality of warmer or colder long term future.

Right approach

We do not know, with any kind of certainty, if the Earth's population significantly influence the global temperature.  Moving resources towards an attempt to control an assumed influence, is not only meaningless, but also harmful to any project that could otherwise help withstand any climatic change and population growth.  Agreeing that we want to help each other to the best quality of life for both people and animals as a whole, we must move resources to where they are most effective.  It is not easy to define the right proceedings necessary, but we can start with the most obvious ones.

What we aught to do

Make sure we plan for cheap, stable, clean and plentiful energy and the best possible distribution of this.  As coal fired power plants are currently and in a foreseeable future the most important source for electricity production, we must invest in technology to improve pollutant reduction from these plants as much as possible.  Please note that CO2 should not be removed, as CO2 is largely beneficial to the environment and mainly a salvation for the increasing population of people and animals.  Nuclear energy, for generating heat and electricity, has a huge longterm potential.  It might be that thorium reactors have the highest potential, because of thorium's very short half-life, it is cheap, it is very safe, it does not need to be enriched and it is available in quantities adequate for over 300 years of worldwide energy supply.  As far as I remember, you only need to store the nuclear waste, from thorium reactors, for about 1000 years where after it is harmless.  It is such a short time that it becomes very easy to find safe storage places.  In addition, there is no way to use thorium for any military purpose, what will make President Barack Obama's negotiations much easier.
We should focus on helping the less fortunate countries with engineering tasks they might not have the appropriate resources to undertake themselves.
We should strive towards a healthy trade with adequate payment for products coming also from the poorer nations.  That way they end up securing their own welfare and become less dependent on the ever changing climate.
A restructure of the IPCC and their purpose is probably needed, if we want any future plans to be of the maximum benefit to the World.  The IPCC is, mostly due to historic reasons, extremely focused on atmospheric gases to such an extend, that this UN division neglect a mountain of more important factors and issues.

In love of people, animals and plants
Karl J. Hansen